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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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